No, Virginia, There Isn’t a Santa Claus (for Most Countries’ Growth Cycles)
نویسنده
چکیده
Author Contact: David Giles, Dept. of Economics, University of Victoria, P.O. Box 1700, STN CSC, Victoria, B.C., Canada V8W 2Y2; e-mail: [email protected]; FAX: (250) 721-6214 Abstract We consider the seasonal distribution of turning points in the post-war growth cycles of sixteen economies. Using nonparametric tests for distributions on the circle, we cannot reject the hypothesis of a uniform distribution for the turning points for most of the countries. In the case of troughs in the cycle, uniformity is supported for eleven countries, notwithstanding the unusually large number of December or January troughs. This provides evidence against a possible ‘Santa Claus effect’ in the growth cycle.
منابع مشابه
Dispelling the nice or naughty myth: retrospective observational study of Santa Claus
OBJECTIVE To determine which factors influence whether Santa Claus will visit children in hospital on Christmas Day. DESIGN Retrospective observational study. SETTING Paediatric wards in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales. PARTICIPANTS 186 members of staff who worked on the paediatric wards (n=186) during Christmas 2015. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Presence or absence of Sant...
متن کاملPutting Claus Back into Christmas
A Christmas season wouldn’t be complete without the annual complaint that the holiday has become too commercialized and that we need to put Christ back into Christmas, that he is the reason for the season. This gripe is not only misguided but has things backwards – Santa Claus is a better representative of the true spirit of Christmas than Jesus ever was or ever could be. As we will see, Christ...
متن کاملDating Business Cycle in Oil Exporting Countries
In this paper, we empirically investigate the relationship between oil price changes and output in a group of oil exporting countries. The dynamics of business cycles in Libya, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Kuwait, Venezuela and Qatar are modeled by alternative regime switching models. We show that the extension of uni-variate Markov Switching model in order to include oil revenue improves dating busi...
متن کاملIt Ain't Necessarily So: Why Much of the Medical Literature Is Wrong
DisclosuresSeptember 09, 2014 In 1897, eight-year-old Virginia O'Hanlon wrote to the New York Sun to ask, "Is there a Santa Claus?" [1] Virginia's father, Dr. Phillip O'Hanlon, suggested that course of action because "if you see it in the Sun, it's so." Today many clinicians and health professionals may share the same faith in the printed word and assume that if it says it in the New England Jo...
متن کامل